finance

Kalshi Prediction Markets Show Rising Probability of U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal by 2027

May 7, 2026

1 source

CNBC Finance

Kalshi Prediction Markets Show Rising Probability of U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal by 2027

Story Summary

Traders on the prediction platform Kalshi have increased the probability of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal being reached by 2027 to 58%, following an Axios report suggesting the two nations are nearing a framework for negotiations. While this figure represents a recovery from recent lows, it remains below the peak optimism observed in mid-April, when market participants placed the odds of a June agreement above 70%. The current contract, which resolves to "yes" upon the formal announcement or acceptance of a deal, reflects ongoing geopolitical sensitivity regarding potential moratoriums on Iranian nuclear enrichment. Meanwhile, competing platform Polymarket reports even higher confidence, with traders there assigning a 65% probability to a deal occurring before 2027 as both nations review current proposals.

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Polygon·May 10, 2026

consumer services

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The Verge·May 10, 2026

gaming

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Polygon·May 10, 2026

lifestyle

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Vogue·May 10, 2026